After nearly two years of a market stagnation caused by change of support system and new approach to RES coming from Polish government we have the thirst significant (3rd overall) auction coming early November 2018. Polish energy regulatory office (URE) announced thirteen auctions for different technologies, significant amount of capacity is anticipated for onshore wind and PV, in total over 78TWh for 15 years period.
Selected auctions:
- Waste to energy and biomass – 57 699 309 MWh
- Onshore wind and PV with installed capacity over 1MW – 45 000 000 MWh
- Waste to energy and biomass and biogas – 33 864 470 MWh
- Onshore wind and PV with installed capacity below 1MW – 16 065 000 MWh
- Biogas, waste to energy and biomass – 13 311 000 MWh
- Agriculture biogas below 500kW – 11 700 000 MWh
Concentrating on wind and PV auctions, it is expected that for installations below 1MW, auction will be dominated by PV installations and from 700 MW to 900 MW of such projects will successfully participate in the auction and get subsidy. Not many wind projects below 1MW were developed so the competition for solar project is expected to be very low.
Considering projects above 1MW it will be opposite situation – wind will take a leading role, it is expected that over 1000MW (depending on projects efficiency – NEH) will be successful in the auction. Rough estimations show that around 2.5 – 3.0 GW of ready to build project was waiting for this auction since end of 2016 when the last turbines were constructed under old support system. Competition in this auction will be high as there is big capacity of available project and high uncertainty regarding polish onshore wind future.